Global Growth Rates ~ GDP Forecasts 2019...

The Economist forecasts GDP worldwide in 2019...

On The Rise ~ Global GDP-Change 2018 Fo'cast

The Economist graphically visualizes fastest-growing and shrinking economies in 2018...

Urban Growth ~ Mapping Population Dynamics...

The Guardian spotlights Cities in numbers: how patterns of urban growth change the world...

"Beneath the crude statistic that the world is heading towards 70% urbanisation by 2050 lie regional differences in demographic, economic and environmental change. LSE Cities’ Urban Age programme takes a deeper look at the data"

Disney Strategy ~ Synergy & Sustainable Growth

Thanks to Kottke for spotting Disney corporate strategy chart from 1957! Details are different and there's more pieces to the pie but it's basically enduring...

Planet of Cities ~ Room for Urban Expansion...

Shlomo (Solly) Angel who runs the Urban Expansion Initiative at NYU Stern and authored a Planet of Cities both writes and speaks about making room for cities to grow by plan...

Startup Ecosystem ~ Five Fostering Ingredients...

Brad Feld spotlights UP Global's new white paper Fostering a Startup and Innovation Ecosystem...

"This white paper underscores the five critical ingredients that support flourishing entrepreneurial ecosystems: talent, density, culture, capital, and regulatory environment."

Growth with Depth ~ African Transformation...

K.Y. Amoako, President of the Africa Centre for Economic Transformation, introduces their new report Growth with Depth at African Arguments...

"We hear a lot these days about “Africa Rising” [...] But beneath the surface it’s not that simple. The rate of African growth may have increased, but the structure of most Sub-Saharan economies has not changed much over the past 40 years. [...]

Thus the headline statistics disguise both residual problems and inherent vulnerabilities. [...] How can we prevent this pattern repeating itself? This is the question our inaugural Africa Transformation Report aims to answer. Its core argument is that to ensure growth is sustainable and improves the lives of the many, governments need to address structural weaknesses, and deliberately and vigorously promote economic transformation, or growth with DEPTH. This acronym stands for Diversification of production and exports, Export competitiveness, Productivity increases, and Technological advances -- all leading to Human well-being."

Read the full report and see preview...

The Fastest Billion ~ Robertson on Africa's Boom

Thanks to Emeka Okafor at Africa Unchained for spotting The Fastest Billion co-author Charles Robertson at TEDGlobal...

GDP Growth ~ Economist Forecast for 2013...

Batista's Brazil ~ Economist Maps Eike's EBX...

The latest Economist maps Batista's Brazil...

"Since 2004 he has set up and listed five companies: MPX (energy generation); MMX (mining); LLX (logistics); OGX (oil and gas) and OSX (shipbuilding). A sixth, one of his few non-Brazilian assets, a Colombian coal mine, will be spun off from MPX on May 25th. Together with four unlisted companies in entertainment, precious metals, information technology and property, these make up the EBX empire. (All those Xs are supposed to represent wealth multiplying.) Few have yet made profits. Some were listed before they were much more than an idea. But selling potential has made Mr Batista Brazil’s richest man and the world’s seventh-richest, with a fortune estimated at $30 billion. That’s more than Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook. Mr Batista says he will not be satisfied until he has taken the top spot from Carlos Slim, a Mexican telecoms tycoon."

Accelerated Convergence ~ Growth Strategies...

I want to revisit the big idea of Accelerated Convergence -- figuring out how historically, and how going forward, countries begin to grow rapidly and catch-up with the most prosperous. Check out these data traces from Gapminder which show first Australia, then Canada, then Monaco, then Sweden, then Japan, then South Korea, and now China all shifting from prior GDP/capita trajectory into accelerated convergence mode and then (except for China, yet) converging in GDP/capita with United States...

Who else can do this in the future? And what if all countries began converging at the average Japan+SK+China rate? Where would we be by 2050?

Limits to Growth ~ 40th Anniv @ Smithsonian...

Limits to Growth -- published in 1972, see here a 40 years retrospective discussion at the Smithsonian. First, Dennis Meadows... And Jørgen Randers... (And see here the rest of the series of speakers)

Resource Nationalism ~ Economist on Africa...

The Economist writes Wish you were mine about the growing and troublesome resource nationalism in Africa...

"African governments are seeking higher rents and bigger ownership stakes from foreign miners. [...] in the past year resource nationalism has jumped to the top of the list of things that worry the 30 biggest global miners. [...] In Africa mining companies are often especially vulnerable -- they are usually the biggest corporate beasts around. Widespread poverty has provided a ready excuse for governments dependent on income from resources. The trick for miners is to ensure not only that the money keeps flowing but also that the miners agree to the spending on roads, railways, schools and hospitals that are now a customary part of the package the industry offers to acquire mineral rights."

On the one hand, I loathe the kleptocratic corruption and wasteful incompetence of the typical nation state and its minions. On the other hand, most big corporates have a disproportionate skill and knowledge advantage and have a track record of exploitation. Surely there's a third alternative which embraces strategic CSR and allows everyday citizens to participate in the bounty?

Watts Next ~ Worldwide Primary Energy Use...

The Economist shares Watts Next in world energy use...

"The amount of energy needed to produce a unit of GDP will also converge as globalisation drives energy efficiency, making economic growth far less energy intensive everywhere in the world."

Flat Tax ~ Dan Mitchell on Simplicity & Growth

The Flat Tax is simple, just, and good. CATO's Dan Mitchell explains!

Growth Dynamics ~ WSJ on Ghana & African Air...

Drew Hinshaw writes in the WSJournal, In an African Dynamo's Expansion, the Perils of Prosperity...

"In 2011, Ghana's economy is forecast to grow 13.5%, a clip that exceeds every other country in the world except Qatar, according to the International Monetary Fund. Big oil finds pumped growth beyond 2010's 7.7%. As growth stagnates in the U.S. and Europe, Ghana's robust multiparty democracy has turned its capital into a hub for companies chasing business -- on a continent that grew 5.5% this year, according to the IMF. [...] Ghana's growth has made the nation of 24 million Africa's newest middle-income country, joining Namibia, Botswana and South Africa. Nigeria will soon join them, economists forecast. [...] But Ghana's bottlenecks are curbing what economists say could be even faster growth, offering lessons for other African countries that may follow a similar path of development."

Hinshaw also writes West African Skies Beckon More Carriers...

"From Senegal to Sierra Leone, start-ups, decrepit local carriers and even international airlines are out to prove that jet travel can extend beyond deep-pocketed passengers to West Africa's flourishing middle-class and business travelers. [...] West Africa has some of the world's fastest-growing economies, including that of Nigeria, the continent's most populous nation. The International Monetary Fund projects that Ghana's economy will grow 13.5% this year. The International Civil Aviation Organization expects Africans to fly 8% more miles in 2012 and 8.3 % more in 2012, making the continent earth's fastest-growing for air travel behind Asia and the Middle East. And industry analysts say traffic here could expand even faster as competition heats up, pushing prices down. But the new airlines are flying into some of the world's most dysfunctional airspace."

Charting Progress ~ Per Capita GDP Doublings!

Lovely Economist infographic on rate of per capita GDP doublings...

"Average incomes in developing economies are growing more quickly than at any previous time in history according to a recent report by the McKinsey Global Institute. It took more than 150 years from the start of Britain's industrial revolution for GDP per person (measured at purchasing-power parity) to double from $1,300 to $2,600. [...] China did it in just twelve."

Lion Economies ~ Key East African Advantages...

In a recent piece in The East African, Dimitri Stoelinga and Sachin Gathani assert that Lion economies of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania will grow fastest in the world citing work on Economic Complexity by Harvard and MIT colleagues...

"Hausmann and Hidalgo’s research reveals that -- just like China and Taiwan 25 years ago -- East Africa’s productive structure has the potential to quickly diversify and increasingly move towards more sophisticated products, thereby stimulating growth. Also, just like China and Taiwan, East African countries are not really “poor” from a capabilities perspective. 25 years ago China and Taiwan already had the capabilities to develop the diverse range of products that they produce today; it is in large part these same capabilities that have led them to their current income levels. It’s just that 25 years ago, “the cheque was in the mail.” East African countries have a similar potential today..."

The Growth Map ~ O'Neill Goes Beyond BRICs!

The Telegraph has been publishing excerpts of Goldman economist Jim O'Neill's new book, The Growth Map...

"My only regret on the first BRICs analysis of 2001 is that we weren't bolder. Between 2001 and 2010, the BRIC economies' GDP rose much more sharply than I had thought possible even in the most optimistic scenario. [...] In all my analysis of world economies, amid all the information and hype, I have stayed focused on the benefits of an expanding, more productive workforce. [...] I had not fully appreciated the simple but critical importance of demographics and productivity. Simply applying the most credible estimates of long-term demographic trends, especially for the working population, is the intellectual cornerstone of the argument for the BRICs' potential. Between them, the four BRIC countries are home to close on 3 billion people, not far off half the world's population. [...] Given the BRICs' success, it should be no surprise that many other countries are now vying to be dubbed the next BRIC. [...] We came up with a group that we called the 'Next Eleven', or N-11 for short. They are Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, (South) Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam. Although we thought no N-11 country was likely to grow to the size of any of the BRICs, we predicted that Mexico and Korea had the capacity to become almost as important as the BRICs. [...] the term emerging markets could no longer be applied to the BRICs and four of the N-11: Indonesia, Korea, Mexico and Turkey. These are now countries with largely sound government debt and deficit positions, robust trading networks and huge numbers of people all moving steadily up the economic ladder. For investors to understand the scale of the opportunity here, and for policymakers to grasp what is changing in the world, they must see these countries apart from the traditional emerging markets. I decided that a more accurate term would be Growth Markets."

Booming Gurgaon ~ AlJaz on Indian Growth City

Al Jazeera's 101 East shares the Tale of a modern city ~ How can Indian cities keep up with the nation's dramatic economic boom?

"India is richer than ever before, and could surpass China's economy by 2013. But its growth is a mix of dynamism and dysfunction as can be seen in the city of Gurgaon [which] barely existed 20 years ago. Today it is a booming metropolis of apartment buildings, shopping malls, golf courses and luxury stores. But it lacks basic infrastructure like sewerage, electricity, public transport and roads. The city suffers from traffic jams and flooding due to poor infrastructure, and those living there say government bodies are struggling to keep up with developers who helped build the city. Facing inefficient government, corruption and bureaucracy, consumers must provide their own resources, including generators, water tanks, private security and transport, which is leading to growing frustrations."