09 November 2008

Vision 2050 ~ Imagining & Modeling Our Future

In July 1997, Peter Schwartz and Peter Leyden wrote The Long Boom: A History of the Future, 1980 - 2020 in WIRED, speculating that:
"We are one world. All organisms crammed on the globe are intricately interdependent. Plants, animals, humans need to find a way to live together on that tiny little place. By 2020, most people are acting on that belief. The population has largely stabilized. The spreading prosperity nudged a large enough block of people into middle-class lifestyles to curtail high birth rates. In some pockets of the world large families are still highly valued, but most people strive only to replicate themselves, and no more. Just as important, the world economy has evolved to a point roughly in balance with nature. To be sure, the ecosystem is not in perfect equilibrium. More pollution enters the world than many would like. But the rates of contamination have been greatly reduced, and the trajectory of these trends looks promising. The regeneration of the global environment is in sight."
In 2001, Jerome Glenn's article A Better World in 2050? in The Globalist speculates that:
"By 2050, the world had finally achieved a global economy that appeared to be environmentally sustainable, while providing nearly all people with the basic necessities of life -- and the majority with a comfortable living. Different explanations have been given for the series of astounding successes achieved by 2050. Some believe that breakthroughs in science and technology were the key. Others argue that development of the human potential was more fundamental -- and still others that political and economic policies made the difference. All three themes were important and mutually reinforcing."
In October 2003, Dominic Wilson and Roopa Purushothaman at Goldman Sachs published Dreaming with BRICs: The Path to 2050 speculating that:
"If things go right, in less than 40 years, the BRICs economies together could be larger than the G6 in US dollar terms. By 2025 they could account for over half the size of the G6. Of the current G6, only the US and Japan may be among the six largest economies in US dollar terms in 2050. The list of the world's ten largest economies may look quite different in 2050. The largest economies in the world (by GDP) may no longer be the richest (by income per capita), making strategic choices for firms more complex."
In March 2006, John Hawksworth at Pricewaterhouse Coopers published The World in 2050, in which they project:
"The relative size in the period to 2050 of the 17 largest economies in the world in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. These comprise the current G7 (US, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy and Canada), plus Spain, Australia and South Korea, and the seven largest emerging market economies, which we refer to collectively as the ‘E7’ (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey)."
In a March 2008 update by John Hawksworth and Gordon Cookson entitled The World in 2050 Beyond the BRICs: a broader look at emerging market growth prospects extends:
"The analysis to 13 other emerging economies that, while smaller than those of the E7, also have the potential to grow significantly faster than the established OECD economies. Some of these countries, such as Vietnam, appear to have immediate potential as inward investment locations for manufacturing in particular. Others, such as Nigeria, may appear to be high risk propositions now, but have considerable long-term potential if they can achieve and sustain a greater degree of political stability and economic openness in the longer term. The general message is that investors with long-time horizons should not restrict their attention only to the BRICs or even the E7 -- there are many other alternatives worth considering depending on the nature of the investment and the risk tolerance of the investor."
In October 2006, Sandra Poncet at CEPII published The Long Term Growth Prospects of the World Economy: Horizon 2050 spotlighting that:
"Today’s advanced economies are to become a shrinking part of the world economy: in less than 50 years, China and India together could match the size of the US in current dollars (26.6 against 26.9% of the world GDP in 2050). China and India will stand out as an engine of new demand growth and spending, their GDP will grow at yearly average rate of 4.6 and 4.5%, respectively between 2005 and 2050. The largest economies in the world (by GDP) may no longer be the richest (in terms of income per capita)."

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