29 July 2011

Population 2050 ~ Science on Demographics...

The latest Science is a special issue on Population...
"Social scientists can be a contentious lot. Since Thomas Malthus issued his dire warning in 1798 -- and probably before then -- scholars have been arguing over how many people the planet can support. There are “doomsters” who continue to predict the worst, and there are “boomsters” who argue that population growth, while worrisome in many ways, can be an engine of economic growth. [...] Debate continues over how best to address [...] problems and over whether rapid population growth is best dealt with by expanding family planning programs or implementing policies that will improve livelihoods and increase the education of girls and young women -- or both. Still, many experts remain optimistic that with the right mix of policies, countries can harness the opportunities for economic growth and development offered by a young and educated workforce, congregating in dense, networked urban environments."
Among the challenges are getting a grip on the scale of the demographics -- forecasting fecundity, so to speak. The 9 Billion? piece by Leslie Roberts elaborates...
"All population projections are uncertain, as they are entirely dependent on assumptions about the future -- for instance, how many children a woman will have 20 or 30 years hence. In that sense, these numbers can be considered best scientific guesses, not destiny. What's more, the further out one looks, the cloudier these projections become. Still, they offer a window into what the world might look like in 2050."

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